Implementación de modelos de series temporales en casos de COVID-19
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Fecha
2021
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Ediciones Universidad Simón Bolívar
Facultad de Ingeniería
Facultad de Ingeniería
Resumen
Esta investigación se dio con el fin de tener datos exactos sobre las personas contagiadas en Colombia
con COVID 19 del año 2021, para así de esta manera pronosticar con datos numéricos cuantas personas
en promedio se contagiarán en Colombia. Lo siguiente se realizo fue poner en prácticas los métodos de
series temporales: suavización exponencial, media móvil ponderado y media móvil simple. Llegando a
tener resultados altos en este año en curso. Los resultados fueron examinados de acuerdo con el método
correspondiente. Método de media móvil con tres periodos (1.233.926961,87) este fue unos de los
resultados mas altos que se obtuvo del reciente estudio de casos COVID positivos en Colombia.
This research was given in order to have accurate data on people infected in Colombia with COVID 19 from the year 2021, in order to predict with numerical data how many people on average will be infected in Colombia. The following was done was to put into practice the time series methods: exponential smoothing, weighted moving average and simple moving average. Getting to have high results in this current year. The results were examined according to the corresponding method. Moving average method with three periods (1,233,926961.87) this was one of the highest results obtained from the recent study of positive COVID cases in Colombia.
This research was given in order to have accurate data on people infected in Colombia with COVID 19 from the year 2021, in order to predict with numerical data how many people on average will be infected in Colombia. The following was done was to put into practice the time series methods: exponential smoothing, weighted moving average and simple moving average. Getting to have high results in this current year. The results were examined according to the corresponding method. Moving average method with three periods (1,233,926961.87) this was one of the highest results obtained from the recent study of positive COVID cases in Colombia.
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Palabras clave
Series temporales, Suavización exponencial, Media móvil, Media móvil simple, Descomposición temporal COVID-19, Time series, Exponential smoothing, Moving average, Simple moving average, COVID-19-time decomposition
