Relación entre la inflación y el desempleo en Colombia en los últimos 30 años, una mirada desde la curva de Phillips
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Fecha
2023
Autores
Niebles Barceló, Maria Fernanda
Bolívar De Arco, Margiseth
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Ediciones Universidad Simón Bolívar
Facultad de Administración y Negocios
Facultad de Administración y Negocios
Resumen
Este estudio se enfoca en el análisis de la evolución de la inflación y el desempleo en Colombia desde los años 90 hasta la actualidad, así como en la exploración de la relación entre ambos indicadores a través de la teoría de la Curva de Phillips. El objetivo principal es Explicar el comportamiento de la tasa de inflación y el desempleo en Colombia y establecer si existe o no relación con la teoría del modelo de la Curva de Phillips con base en los datos de los últimos 30 años, se da una mirada general de los factores económicos,
políticos y sociales que han impactado estos indicadores. La metodología de la investigación se basó en un minucioso análisis de datos económicos y laborales de Colombia, abarcando desde la década de los 90 hasta la fecha actual. Se examinaron políticas económicas implementadas, factores externos e internos que influyeron en la economía colombiana a lo largo de estos años, observando de manera general la relación entre las variables de inflación y desempleo.
Los resultados obtenidos revelan una tendencia inflacionaria influenciada por medidas anti-proteccionistas en los años 90, seguida de periodos de estabilidad y crisis, con un destacado impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en 2020 y 2021. En cuanto al desempleo, se observaron fluctuaciones relacionadas con reformas laborales, la crisis migratoria y la pandemia, destacando la necesidad de estrategias flexibles y adaptativas.
Las conclusiones del estudio apuntan hacia una relación débil entre la inflación y el desempleo, en contradicción con la teoría de la Curva de Phillips. Este fenómeno se atribuye en parte al sistema de inflación objetivo y a factores externos como tratados de libre comercio. Como respuesta, se proponen recomendaciones que abarcan la gestión de la inflación, políticas laborales adaptativas y la mejora en la coordinación de políticas económicas. Estas medidas buscan abordar desafíos específicos y fomentar la estabilidad económica y social en Colombia.
This study focuses on the analysis of the evolution of inflation and unemployment in Colombia from the 90s to the present, as well as on the exploration of the relationship between both indicators through the Phillips Curve theory. The main objective is to explain the behavior of the inflation rate and unemployment in Colombia and establish whether or not there is a relationship with the theory of the Phillips Curve model based on data from the last 30 years, a general look is given. of the economic, political and social factors that have impacted these indicators. The research methodology was based on a thorough analysis of economic and labor data from Colombia, spanning from the 90s to the present day. Implemented economic policies, external and internal factors that influenced the Colombian economy throughout these years were examined, generally observing the relationship between inflation and unemployment variables. The results obtained reveal an inflationary trend influenced by anti-protectionist measures in the 90s, followed by periods of stability and crisis, with a notable impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Regarding unemployment, fluctuations were observed related to labor reforms, the migration crisis and the pandemic, highlighting the need for flexible and adaptive strategies. The study's conclusions point to a weak relationship between inflation and unemployment, in contradiction to the Phillips Curve theory. This phenomenon is partly attributed to the inflation targeting system and external factors such as free trade agreements. In response, recommendations are proposed that cover inflation management, adaptive labor policies, and improving the coordination of economic policies. These measures seek to address specific challenges and promote economic and social stability in Colombia.
This study focuses on the analysis of the evolution of inflation and unemployment in Colombia from the 90s to the present, as well as on the exploration of the relationship between both indicators through the Phillips Curve theory. The main objective is to explain the behavior of the inflation rate and unemployment in Colombia and establish whether or not there is a relationship with the theory of the Phillips Curve model based on data from the last 30 years, a general look is given. of the economic, political and social factors that have impacted these indicators. The research methodology was based on a thorough analysis of economic and labor data from Colombia, spanning from the 90s to the present day. Implemented economic policies, external and internal factors that influenced the Colombian economy throughout these years were examined, generally observing the relationship between inflation and unemployment variables. The results obtained reveal an inflationary trend influenced by anti-protectionist measures in the 90s, followed by periods of stability and crisis, with a notable impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Regarding unemployment, fluctuations were observed related to labor reforms, the migration crisis and the pandemic, highlighting the need for flexible and adaptive strategies. The study's conclusions point to a weak relationship between inflation and unemployment, in contradiction to the Phillips Curve theory. This phenomenon is partly attributed to the inflation targeting system and external factors such as free trade agreements. In response, recommendations are proposed that cover inflation management, adaptive labor policies, and improving the coordination of economic policies. These measures seek to address specific challenges and promote economic and social stability in Colombia.
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Palabras clave
Curva de Phillips, Inflación, Desempleo, Phillips curve, Inflation, Unemployment
