Influencia de la balanza comercial en el producto en el PIB de Colombia durante el periodo 2019- 2023
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Fecha
2025
Autores
Ávila Pérez, Roger David
Rodríguez Ochoa, Víctor Eduardo
Silva González, Katherine
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Ediciones Universidad Simón Bolívar
Facultad de Administración y Negocios
Facultad de Administración y Negocios
Resumen
Esta monografía analiza la influencia de la balanza comercial en el Producto Interno
Bruto (PIB) de Colombia entre 2019 y 2023, con el objetivo de formular estrategias
que impulsen el crecimiento económico y la competitividad del país. Se adoptó una
metodología mixta (cuantitativa-cualitativa), con un enfoque deductivo y un diseño
no experimental transversal. Para ello, se revisaron datos oficiales del DANE,
analizando el comportamiento del PIB mediante el método del gasto, considerando
variables como demanda interna, consumo, inversión, exportaciones e
importaciones. Se identificó la relación entre la balanza comercial y el PIB,
examinando factores internos y externos que han influido en su variación. Se
estudiaron teorías económicas relevantes, incluyendo el modelo VAR de Rodríguez
y Sánchez (2020), que demuestra el impacto de la volatilidad petrolera en el PIB y
sugiere diversificación de exportaciones. Además, se analizó el efecto del TLC con
EE.UU. según Martínez y Pérez (2021) y el impacto del tipo de cambio en la
economía basada en Rincón (2015). El estudio concluye que incentivar la
producción nacional de materias primas, fomentar la inversión en educación y
fortalecer la confianza gubernamental son claves para mejorar la balanza comercial
y dinamizar el PIB. Se proponen estrategias agrarias, tecnológicas y sostenibles en
asociación con el sector público-privado para reducir importaciones, aumentar
exportaciones y fortalecer el crecimiento económico.
This monograph analyzes the influence of the trade balance on Colombia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2019 and 2023, with the objective of formulating strategies to boost the country's economic growth and competitiveness. A mixed methodology (quantitative-qualitative) was adopted, with a deductive approach and a non-experimental cross-sectional design. For this purpose, official data from DANE were reviewed, analyzing the behavior of GDP through the expenditure method, considering variables such as domestic demand, consumption, investment, exports and imports. The relationship between the trade balance and GDP was identified, examining internal and external factors that have influenced its variation. Relevant economic theories were studied, including the VAR model of Rodriguez and Sanchez (2020), which demonstrates the impact of oil volatility on GDP and suggests export diversification. In addition, the effect of the FTA with the U.S. according to Martínez and Pérez (2021) and the impact of the exchange rate on the economy based on Rincón (2015) were analyzed. The study concludes that encouraging domestic production of raw materials, promoting investment in education and strengthening government confidence are key to improving the trade balance and boosting GDP. It proposes agricultural, technological and sustainable strategies in partnership with the public-private sector to reduce imports, increase exports and strengthen economic growth.
This monograph analyzes the influence of the trade balance on Colombia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2019 and 2023, with the objective of formulating strategies to boost the country's economic growth and competitiveness. A mixed methodology (quantitative-qualitative) was adopted, with a deductive approach and a non-experimental cross-sectional design. For this purpose, official data from DANE were reviewed, analyzing the behavior of GDP through the expenditure method, considering variables such as domestic demand, consumption, investment, exports and imports. The relationship between the trade balance and GDP was identified, examining internal and external factors that have influenced its variation. Relevant economic theories were studied, including the VAR model of Rodriguez and Sanchez (2020), which demonstrates the impact of oil volatility on GDP and suggests export diversification. In addition, the effect of the FTA with the U.S. according to Martínez and Pérez (2021) and the impact of the exchange rate on the economy based on Rincón (2015) were analyzed. The study concludes that encouraging domestic production of raw materials, promoting investment in education and strengthening government confidence are key to improving the trade balance and boosting GDP. It proposes agricultural, technological and sustainable strategies in partnership with the public-private sector to reduce imports, increase exports and strengthen economic growth.
Descripción
Palabras clave
Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), Balanza comercial (BC), Economía, Información oficial DANE
