Propuesta de un método cualitativo para el pronóstico de la demanda requerida por el almacén que suministra los uniformes a los estudiantes del Colegio Altamira International School
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Fecha
2020
Autores
Aurela Donado, Kevin Ifor
Betancourt Ariza, Karina Paola
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Ediciones Universidad Simón Bolívar
Facultad de Ingenierías
Facultad de Ingenierías
Resumen
El presente proyecto plantea una propuesta de mejoramiento al abastecimiento
eficaz del almacén del Colegio Altamira International School con el objetivo de
poder cumplir con la promesa que se le ofrece al padre de familia, que es obtener
los uniformes en las instalaciones del colegio de manera segura y rápida, los
cuales cumplen con las especificaciones exigidas por la institución. Con este
proyecto se busca reducir al máximo los inconvenientes de faltantes y sobre stock,
con el fin que los padres de familia puedan obtener la prenda de la talla que
necesitan en tiempo real. Para llevar a cabo la realización del presente proyecto
se analizaron diferentes trabajos orientados al modelo de pronóstico de demanda
cualitativo de compras, en los cuales se logró recolectar información relacionada
con la implementación de este modelo de pronóstico, donde podemos observar
que; Los métodos cualitativos por lo general comprenden el uso del juicio experto
para construir pronósticos. Se resalta como una de las mayores ventajas de estos
procedimientos cualitativos, es que la aplicación de estos se da cuando la
información sobre la variable que se está pronosticando no puede cuantificarse o
son escasos. (Villarreal, F. 2016). Con la elaboración de este proyecto se pudo observar la importancia que tienen
los pronósticos al momento de la toma de decisiones y en la proyección de lo que
se desea para la compañía. En consecuencia a lo anterior se logra reducir la
incertidumbre permitiendo de una u otra forma una planeación mucho más
detallada de las actividades, de tal manera que los inventarios manejados en el
almacén brinden la confianza de no incurrir en sobre stock o faltantes, y al final
poder cumplir con la promesa realizada al cliente que es obtener los uniformes en
las instalaciones del colegio de manera segura y rápida. (Demanda, proveedor,
almacén, inventarios, uniforme, stock, costes, pronósticos).
This project proposes a proposal to improve the efficient supply of the warehouse of the Altamira International School School in order to be able to fulfill the promise that is offered to the parent, which is to obtain the uniforms in the school facilities in a safe and secure manner, fast, which meet the specifications required by the institution. The aim of this project is to minimize the inconvenience of shortages and overstock, so that parents can obtain the garment of the size they need in real time. In order to carry out the present project, different works oriented to the qualitative purchasing demand forecast model were analyzed, in which information related to the implementation of this forecast model was collected, where we can observe that; Qualitative methods generally comprise the use of expert judgment to construct forecasts. It stands out as one of the greatest advantages of these qualitative procedures, is that the application of these occurs when the information about the variable that is being predicted cannot be quantified or is scarce. (Villarreal, F. 2016). With the development of this project, it was possible to observe the importance of forecasts when making decisions and in the projection of what is desired for the company. Consequently, it is possible to reduce the uncertainty, allowing in one way or another a much more detailed planning of the activities, in such a way that the inventories managed in the warehouse provide the confidence of not incurring in over-stock or shortages, and in the end be able to fulfill the promise made to the client that is to obtain the uniforms in the school facilities safely and quickly. (Demand, supplier, warehouse, inventories, uniform, stock, costs, forecasts).
This project proposes a proposal to improve the efficient supply of the warehouse of the Altamira International School School in order to be able to fulfill the promise that is offered to the parent, which is to obtain the uniforms in the school facilities in a safe and secure manner, fast, which meet the specifications required by the institution. The aim of this project is to minimize the inconvenience of shortages and overstock, so that parents can obtain the garment of the size they need in real time. In order to carry out the present project, different works oriented to the qualitative purchasing demand forecast model were analyzed, in which information related to the implementation of this forecast model was collected, where we can observe that; Qualitative methods generally comprise the use of expert judgment to construct forecasts. It stands out as one of the greatest advantages of these qualitative procedures, is that the application of these occurs when the information about the variable that is being predicted cannot be quantified or is scarce. (Villarreal, F. 2016). With the development of this project, it was possible to observe the importance of forecasts when making decisions and in the projection of what is desired for the company. Consequently, it is possible to reduce the uncertainty, allowing in one way or another a much more detailed planning of the activities, in such a way that the inventories managed in the warehouse provide the confidence of not incurring in over-stock or shortages, and in the end be able to fulfill the promise made to the client that is to obtain the uniforms in the school facilities safely and quickly. (Demand, supplier, warehouse, inventories, uniform, stock, costs, forecasts).
