Análisis de los factores del micro y macroentorno más influyentes al momento de invertir en acciones de la bolsa de valores de Colombia (BVC) (una mirada al análisis fundamental)
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Fecha
2022
Autores
Hoyos Montiel, Luis Enrique
Mórelo Flórez, Adriana Rosa
Fuentes Enamorado, Mauricio Javier
Sarmiento Amor, Brayan
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Ediciones Universidad Simón Bolívar
Facultad de Administración y Negocios
Facultad de Administración y Negocios
Resumen
El presente artículo se centró en identificar las principales variables más influyentes al momento de invertir en la bolsa de valores de Colombia, Se hace referencia al marco legal y regulatorio que rige las actividades en esta misma y se destaca la importancia de la bolsa de valores en el crecimiento del mercado de capitales y la transferencia de recursos. El objetivo principal consistió en proponer una estrategia de inversión en acciones de la BVC que considere tanto variables del macroentorno, como el producto interno bruto (PIB), la inflación, la tasa representativa del mercado (TRM) y las tasas de interés, como también variables del microentorno, que abarcan indicadores de liquidez, solvencia, rentabilidad, rotación, eficiencia y valor, La presente investigación desempeña un papel crucial al proporcionar una valiosa asistencia y orientación a los potenciales inversionistas que carecen de experiencia en el mercado, Al hacerlo, se busca empoderar a los inversionistas novatos, dotándolos de las herramientas necesarias para tomar decisiones informadas y confiables, minimizando así los riesgos asociados y maximizando las oportunidades de obtener rendimientos favorables en sus inversiones, Esta metodología empleada combina un enfoque mixto con un muestreo no probabilístico. La población de estudio fueron todas las empresas emisoras de la BVC, este estudio se realizó con una muestra de las 20 mejores empresas significativas que forman parte del índice MSCI COLCAP. Uno de los resultados obtenidos en nuestro análisis pudimos evidenciar que Ecopetrol es la empresa con mayor capitalización bursátil en el último trimestre de 2022, y se identificó que la TRM es la variable que presenta una mayor relación lineal con el mercado bursátil. Las conclusiones destacan que el sector más estable para invertir actualmente es el de energías, siendo Ecopetrol el principal exponente en términos de capitalización bursátil. Sin embargo, según el modelo propuesto, ISA, que también pertenece a dicho sector, se posiciona como la empresa líder para invertir. Esta investigación contribuye al conocimiento financiero al proporcionar a los inversionistas una nueva propuesta de inversión integral logrando que tomen la mejor decisión., Finalmente de acuerdo a nuestro análisis y estudio pudimos concluir que con el paso de los ultimo 5 años desde el 2017 hasta el 2022 el mercado bursátil de Colombia ha estado un poco estable ya que la pandemia y la post pandemia hizo que el mercado hubiera bastante incertidumbre y estancamiento que con la poca inversión extranjera en nuestro mercado, Sin embargo la TRM de acuerdo a sus variación a echo que el mercado se vuelva un poco más atractivo. Ya que si hay un aumento de ella la moneda local pierde poder y por el contrario si disminuye la moneda local sería más fuerte y el mercado de las acciones no sería tan atractivo porque el capital extranjero no le dejaría tanta rentabilidad esperada tanto para corto como para largo plazo, es por eso que para una buena toma de decisión para invertir en la bolsa de valores de Colombia siempre debe tener claro el sector o las empresas que sean más estables para así no cometer errores que le pueden generar muy poco rentabilidad. En última instancia, es importante destacar que este estudio proporciona una sólida base para futuras investigaciones en el campo, tanto en la aplicación de la metodología propuesta como en la exploración de posibles modificaciones. El objetivo es obtener resultados igualmente sólidos o incluso superiores, lo que permitirá tomar decisiones bien fundamentadas en el mercado accionario
de Colombia. Este estudio sienta las bases para la continuación de la investigación en este tema, fomentando un mayor conocimiento y comprensión del mercado financiero y brindando la oportunidad de mejorar las estrategias de inversión en el futuro.
The present article aimed to identify the main variables most influential when investing in the Colombian stock market. It refers to the legal and regulatory framework that governs activities in this market, highlighting the importance of the stock market in the growth of the capital market and resource transfer. The main objective was to propose an investment strategy in stocks of the BVC that considers both macroenvironment variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, the market representative rate (TRM), and interest rates, as well as microenvironment variables that encompass liquidity, solvency, profitability, turnover, efficiency, and value indicators. This research plays a crucial role in providing valuable assistance and guidance to inexperienced potential investors in the market. By doing so, it seeks to empower novice investors by equipping them with the necessary tools to make informed and reliable decisions, thereby minimizing associated risks and maximizing opportunities for favorable returns on their investments. The methodology employed in this study combines a hybrid approach with non-probabilistic sampling. The study population consisted of all issuing companies in the BVC, and a sample of the top 20 significant companies belonging to the MSCI COLCAP index was analyzed. One of the results obtained in our analysis showed that Ecopetrol had the highest market capitalization in the last quarter of 2022, and the TRM was identified as the variable with the most substantial linear relationship with the stock market. The conclusions highlight that the energy sector is currently the most stable for investment, with Ecopetrol being the primary exponent in terms of market capitalization. However, according to the proposed model, ISA, which also belongs to the energy sector, emerges as the leading company for investment. This research contributes to financial knowledge by providing investors with a new comprehensive investment proposal that helps them make better decisions. Finally, based on our analysis and study, we can conclude that over the past five years, from 2017 to 2022, the Colombian stock market has been relatively stable, despite the uncertainties and stagnation caused by the pandemic and its aftermath, along with limited foreign investment. However, fluctuations in the TRM have made the market slightly more attractive. An increase in the TRM weakens the local currency, while a decrease strengthens it. Consequently, the attractiveness of the stock market diminishes when the local currency strengthens because foreign capital would not yield the expected returns in the short and long term. Therefore, for making sound investment decisions in the Colombian stock market, it is crucial to consider the sectors or companies that demonstrate stability, avoiding mistakes that could result in low profitability. In conclusion, it is essential to highlight that this study provides a solid foundation for future research in the field, either by applying the proposed methodology or exploring possible modifications. The objective is to obtain equally solid or even superior results, enabling well-informed decision-making in the Colombian stock market. This study lays the groundwork for further research, promoting more excellent knowledge and understanding of the financial market and offering opportunities to enhance investment strategies in the future.
The present article aimed to identify the main variables most influential when investing in the Colombian stock market. It refers to the legal and regulatory framework that governs activities in this market, highlighting the importance of the stock market in the growth of the capital market and resource transfer. The main objective was to propose an investment strategy in stocks of the BVC that considers both macroenvironment variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, the market representative rate (TRM), and interest rates, as well as microenvironment variables that encompass liquidity, solvency, profitability, turnover, efficiency, and value indicators. This research plays a crucial role in providing valuable assistance and guidance to inexperienced potential investors in the market. By doing so, it seeks to empower novice investors by equipping them with the necessary tools to make informed and reliable decisions, thereby minimizing associated risks and maximizing opportunities for favorable returns on their investments. The methodology employed in this study combines a hybrid approach with non-probabilistic sampling. The study population consisted of all issuing companies in the BVC, and a sample of the top 20 significant companies belonging to the MSCI COLCAP index was analyzed. One of the results obtained in our analysis showed that Ecopetrol had the highest market capitalization in the last quarter of 2022, and the TRM was identified as the variable with the most substantial linear relationship with the stock market. The conclusions highlight that the energy sector is currently the most stable for investment, with Ecopetrol being the primary exponent in terms of market capitalization. However, according to the proposed model, ISA, which also belongs to the energy sector, emerges as the leading company for investment. This research contributes to financial knowledge by providing investors with a new comprehensive investment proposal that helps them make better decisions. Finally, based on our analysis and study, we can conclude that over the past five years, from 2017 to 2022, the Colombian stock market has been relatively stable, despite the uncertainties and stagnation caused by the pandemic and its aftermath, along with limited foreign investment. However, fluctuations in the TRM have made the market slightly more attractive. An increase in the TRM weakens the local currency, while a decrease strengthens it. Consequently, the attractiveness of the stock market diminishes when the local currency strengthens because foreign capital would not yield the expected returns in the short and long term. Therefore, for making sound investment decisions in the Colombian stock market, it is crucial to consider the sectors or companies that demonstrate stability, avoiding mistakes that could result in low profitability. In conclusion, it is essential to highlight that this study provides a solid foundation for future research in the field, either by applying the proposed methodology or exploring possible modifications. The objective is to obtain equally solid or even superior results, enabling well-informed decision-making in the Colombian stock market. This study lays the groundwork for further research, promoting more excellent knowledge and understanding of the financial market and offering opportunities to enhance investment strategies in the future.
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Palabras clave
Análisis fundamental, PIB, Inflación, TRM, Tasa de interés, Rentabilidad, Liquidez, Solvencia, Endeudamiento, BVC, MSCI Colcap, Fundamental analysis, Inflation, Interest rate, Profitability, Liquidity, Solvency, Indebtedness